Economy and the Electric Car: New Math

According to major news outlets, I'm an idiot who throws away money.

What did I ever do to you, New York Times?

You see, something that has been written about repeatedly is the idea that an electric car, as compared to a gasoline-powered car, simply doesn’t make any economic sense to the individual buyer.  

TIME magazine compared the electric Honda Fit with its gas-powered twin, and found that it would take 11 years before the break even point. Around the same time, the New York Times ran an article in which the Nissan Leaf was said to take 9 years to start saving money over choosing an equivalent gas-powered car, and everybody knows that the average American only drives their car about as long as it takes to go through a toilet paper roll.

By TIME's math, it would take $8 per gallon gasoline before an electric car made sense at current MSRP.

Fortunately, electric cars have dropped thousands of dollars in price since those articles were written in 2012. Nissan dropped the MSRP of the Leaf by $6000. The Chevy Volt soon followed with a $5000 price cut. Honda dropped the price of its Fit EV lease by over $5000 over the course of three years, and threw in a free home charging station.

And when I flip the calculator upside down, it spells...

Like any good geek, I did a lot of number-crunching prior to leasing the Leaf, and I was shocked by the results, given the conclusions reached by the good journalists at the New York Times and TIME magazine. Even in comparisons between my then-current used car and the Leaf, the numbers worked out in favor of the new electric car, and we’re talking on a monthly basis, not just over the course of a decade. Let's do a quick comparison to show what I mean.

Let's see the charts!

2013 Nissan Leaf SV. I chose this mid-grade model because it has the necessary features and options, like the navigation, and upgraded charger and heater. It also forgoes unnecessary luxuries like a high-end stereo, blingy wheels, and leather seating.

Fight!

2014 Nissan Versa Note SV, SL tech package. This car is quite similar as a package to the Leaf SV, and the size is similar enough inside that most drivers and passengers would not notice a difference.

I took current gas prices and local electric rates, and using the average economy of both cars, computed what the lessee could expect to pay over 3 years and 36,000 miles for "fuel." The Leaf has no real maintenance, but the Versa owner must pay for oil changes even while the car is under warrantee. Then I factored in the total cost of the current advertised lease deals.

Look who's (not much) more economical!

Bar Graphs don't lie.

Another interesting thing to note is which of these numbers are "squishy" and which are solid. Few people think our current low fuel prices will stick around, so you could assume the price of fuel on the Versa will go up over time. Also, I know personally that deals are to be had on the Leaf lease - a well-informed consumer can save thousands over the advertised lease specials. I doubt the Versa lease specials are nearly as negotiable. Also, comparing against other cars is usually even more favorable. I should do a Leaf versus SUV graph just for fun.

And that's a base model, front wheel drive, 4 cylinder SUV.

Graphs, charts, and numbers aside, I believe someone interested in leasing an electric car should simply forgo comparing cost of ownership with a similar vehicle, as the differences will be negligible. Driving the Leaf is a revelation - it is silent, smooth, and it's loaded with useful features you cannot find in other cars of this price point. If the range works for your lifestyle, then it deserves a test drive and serious consideration.

Shut up and take my money, but only after I consider every possible variable!

Lease? But Dave Ramsey...

I personally don't yet believe in purchasing an electric vehicle. Theoretically, they should be less expensive over the long term to maintain, as they don't have a need for exhaust, emissions, coolant, oil, and many other gasoline-specific parts. In reality, we don't really know that yet, and I'm not willing to make the bet. Also, resale value is a huge question mark. Currently the Leaf has awful resale value, but again we don't have a lot of long-term data to say exactly why or whether that will continue. Finally, technology on these cars has been improving at such a rate, and prices have been falling so fast, that whatever EV hits the market in 3 years should be a much better car, for a similar or lower price. Tesla is readying a mid-priced model in that time frame, for example.

Well, that was quick.

As of this writing, I am no longer driving an electric car.

At least for the time being, anyways. What happened, was on one of the coldest days, I preheated the Leaf before going out grocery shopping, and was surprised to find the car stone cold when I got in. Maybe I jinxed it, raving about how great the car has been in tackling the bitter cold.

*until it breaks and you have a rental car

Anyway, the fan blows just fine - the only problem is that it's forcing frigid arctic air about the cabin, icing up the interior windows. The heated seats and wheel work, but whatever heating element powers the central climate control has gone kaput. Right now, the Leaf is at the local dealer awaiting parts - and I don't yet know how long those parts will take to arrive. 

What this means is that, for the immediate future, I am scooting around town in a clapped-out rental Ford Focus. By giving up niceties like heated seats, navigation, and remote start, I'm able to get entertaining features such as a slipping torque converter, blown out speakers, and questionable sanitary standards.

Rental Car Winter Olympics

Fortunately, the dealership has been good so far, and at least I have transportation. I have also been in touch with Nissan's Leaf team, who say they're trying to expedite things. They also hinted they would try to reimburse me for gas - which would be great.

To be clear, these things happen and I'm not upset with Nissan for it. A friend's Chrysler 300 had the same thing happen when new. It will be interesting to see how well the dealership and Nissan handle repair of such a specialized and low-volume car. 

Nissan Leaf vs Polar Vortex 2014

The Leaf is both the best and the worst winter car I have ever driven. It has made commuting during a terrible winter not only bearable, but enjoyable at times for various reasons. But batteries don't like the cold, do they?

Electricity and Snow: They Mix!

First, the good. You see, when ordering a Leaf, you automatically get upmarket bits you wouldn't expect on a car like this, like heated seats front and rear, heated mirrors, and even a heated leather steering wheel. Another great benefit - the climate control works nearly instantaneously even in frigid weather, because there is no lag time where you are waiting for the car's engine to warm up. 

Gas and diesel engines also don't like to crank over in sub-zero weather. With the Leaf, you just push a button and away you go, with no drama every single time. You also never freeze your ass off pumping gas, and that's a convenience that cannot be overstated. 

Thanks, but no thanks.

Even better - you can turn on the heated seats, wheel, and climate control remotely from anywhere with an internet connection, and there are many smartphone apps available to do just that. There is even a climate control timer function for those who have a regular schedule. The heated steering wheel, which I at first considered a throwaway feature, has over the winter become as essential to my morning routine as a cup of coffee.

Driving the Leaf on snow-covered roads is acceptable, just like every front-wheel-drive vehicle sold today. Even in a year like this, with record snowfall, getting stuck is not a worry. If you feel you need SUV ground clearance and all-wheel drive for a couple inches of snow, best look elsewhere.

Yes, but does it have a heated steering wheel?

Range Matters, or Not.

Of course, all this glorious comfort doesn't come without its price. In winter, the worry of an reduced range is a real issue. To give an example, earlier in the week I drove in 15 degree temps, 30 miles round trip, mostly on I-75. That used up 75% of an estimated charge, so I could realistically go another 10 miles before needing to recharge. That's a total range of 40 miles, for those like me that can't do maths. Driving slower, taking surface streets, and turning off the heater at times might get me a total range of about 65 miles in this weather.

And if this blog isn't geeky enough, let's plot some graphs.

October Average Economy

This graph shows my daily average economy in the line graph. Over on the left, you can see the average economy is 4.8 miles/kWh. 

January Average Economy

This time, you can see the average economy is 3.0 miles/kWh, a nearly 40% decrease from October. The route was the same, so the only real differences were temperature, climate control usage, and snow cover. The average temperature during this time period was 16.4 degrees. In October, the mean temperature was 53.3 degrees.

So the winter range is pretty paltry, about half of summer's maximum distance. For many in this area, that's all you need to hear to know the Leaf wouldn't work for you. I will talk about Detroit's charging infrastructure some other time, but if you can't plug in at the office, 45 miles round trip is probably the maximum I would consider safe.

That said, even on the worst days, with blowing snow and wind chills of 40 below, the Leaf completed the 30 mile round trip commute with energy to spare, and I haven't felt the need to skimp on climate control preheating 15 minutes before leaving work.

One Last Thing.

I even hesitate to mention it - I really don't want to jinx myself. The thing that worries me most about the Leaf in winter in Detroit? No spare tire, and the tires themselves aren't run-flats either. Detroit is home to some brutal potholes, and a few sinkholes too. They pop up when you least expect them, and multiply overnight. I dread using the included (no joke) can of fix-a-flat and portable compressor on one of these sub-zero nights. 

The Decision to Go Electric

In September of 2013, I decided to lease a Nissan Leaf, and use it to commute around the Detroit area.

Most of the future posts here will focus on living in southeast Michigan with an electric car. Although it has been on sale since 2011, the Leaf still remains a relatively unknown car to the general public, especially in this area of the country. Its main competitor in terms of plug-in vehicles is the Chevrolet Volt, and in Detroit the Volt sells quite well, and certainly much better than the Leaf. Others (Green Car Reports, Motor Trend, and many more) have done a good in-depth analysis of the plug-in options available to consumers, and it would be silly to rehash all of it.

The Volt is a range-extended vehicle, which essentially means that you can go about 30-40 miles on battery power alone, before it starts using gasoline to go quite a bit further, about the same distance as a regular gas-powered car.

The Leaf, on the other hand, operates solely on battery power. There is no gas tank, and no safety net, so to speak. You can expect a range of about 75 miles, possibly 100, on a "normal" day. Obviously there is no such thing as a normal day in Detroit, as this winter has taught me on a daily basis.

Why the Leaf, then? 

• My commute appears to fit the Leaf's estimated range.
• Never stop for gas again.
• No real maintenance.
• The Leaf has 5 seats, with a rear bench. The Volt has only 4 seats.
• The Leaf has much more usable cargo space than the Volt. 
• The Leaf was much less expensive for me than the Volt.

 Why not a regular non-electric car? 

• The Leaf should be less expensive to drive than a similar car.
• I could afford an electric car, and it seemed like the thing to do at the time.
• We already have a regular car.

Note, I didn't say it's more environmentally responsible than driving a conventional vehicle, nor did I say it's cooler than driving a conventional car. Some time in the future, expect a post about the hypothetical environmental impact of driving a Nissan Leaf.